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Taiwan Surf Forecasts

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Taiwan Weekly Wave
08.25.2020 - 08.31.2020

It's hard to believe, but this is our 122nd "Taiwan Weekly Wave"! It is also our last. As we mentioned last week, we will be allocating the time spent producing the Weekly Wave towards improving our surfing resources (surf cams, forecasting tools, etc.). It's in our plans to eventually add interactive marine data layers to our map, so that you can get real-time and forecasted weather visualizations for wave height, wave period, winds, and sea level pressure. Again, we hope you've enjoyed the Weekly Wave and thank you for appreciating it!

It would have been awesome to have an epic swell-generating typhoon for our final Weekly Wave, but at least we got some decent (and unexpected) swell for the past few days from Typhoon Bavi, which is currently about 400 km north-northwest of Okinawa.

There are a number of low pressure systems in the area this week, which should produce some south mid-period swell through Thursday. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well east of the Philippines on Thursday. As of the writing of this on Tuesday, it doesn't look like it will intensify below 1,000 millibars, so it's not looking like much of a swell-generator at the moment. However, we know how quickly storms can intensify in the hot summer waters of the Western Pacific, so let's keep our fingers crossed that we get another unexpected typhoon swell like last week!

And here's hoping for many more wonderful swells that bring happiness to you for years to come ... thank you for tuning in to the Taiwan Weekly Wave! More great surfing resources are in the works and on the way, so stay tuned.

Taiwan Weekly Wave
08.18.2020 - 08.24.2020

A tropical depression formed west of the Luzon Strait on Monday, currently tracking west-northwest towards southeast China. It's possible that this storm will reach moderate tropical storm strength before reaching China, but it shouldn't bring much in the way of swell for the south coast or west coast.

Other than the above system, it's looking like the rest of the week will be quiet, with very small waves for the entire island, unfortunately.

NOTE: Next week will be our last Weekly Wave, as we will be allocating the time spent producing it towards improving our products (surf cams, forecasting tools, etc.). It's in our plans to eventually add interactive marine data layers to our map, so that you can get real-time and forecasted weather visualizations for wave height, wave period, winds, and sea level pressure.

We hope you've enjoyed the Weekly Wave and thank you for appreciating it!

Taiwan Weekly Wave
08.11.2020 - 08.17.2020

So far, August is definitely making up for July, with another round of solid swell the last few days, produced by two tropical storms on both sides of Taiwan. There's also another tropical storm approximately 2,000 km east-northeast of Taiwan and tracking due west. However, this storm should dissipate east of Okinawa and won't produce any additional swell for us.

Tropical Storm Jangmi formed northeast of the Philippines early Sunday, raced rapidly northward (east of Taiwan) and has already entered the Sea of Japan. Jangmi seemed to be just the right strength and distance from Taiwan to produce some solid surf for most of the east coast. Hope you got some!

Severe Tropical Storm Mekkhala, which formed southeast of Taiwan in the South China Sea on Sunday morning, is currently heading northward in the Taiwan Strait, and should make landfall in eastern China soon. As of 8/10, the CWB had issued both a sea and land warning for Mekkhala. This marks the first land warning issued in Taiwan for 2020. The southwest coast should expect strong winds and large waves on Tuesday.

After Tuesday, it looks like high pressure will dominate the Western Pacific, persisting through our forecast period with no new storms or swell events. Take a break and get ready for the next wave of storms ... August is shaping up to be a fun one!

Taiwan Weekly Wave
08.04.2020 - 08.10.2020

Amazingly, there were no named storms during the month of July, the first time no named storms in the month of July since records began in 1951. August should be much more active, as it is usually the busiest month of the typhoon season with an average of 5 or 6 named storms during the month. We have already seen an uptick in activity during the past few days, and hopefully you were able to find the right spots for the good surf we received!

Typhoon Hagupit has already passed Taiwan's northern tip, made landfall in China, and is nearing Shanghai, where it will weaken considerably. The recent swell should drop considerably through Wednesday, but there should be some lingering surf in the 2 to 3 feet range (8-9 second period) for most of the island for the rest of the week.

There is potential for another storm system to form east of the Philippines later in the week, with some weather models showing the storm tracking towards southeastern Taiwan on Monday or Tuesday. It's still too early to get an accurate forecast or track on this storm, but we will keep an eye on it. Things are definitely heating up...hopefully you were staying surf fit during flat July!

Taiwan Weekly Wave
07.28.2020 - 08.03.2020

There's a chance for a small bump in wind swell on Thursday or Friday, for eastern and southern surf spots. A second, larger pulse of longer-period swell could arrive on Sunday, accompanied by strong winds in the south. This would be caused by an area of low pressure forming east of the Philippines during the next couple of days.

We all know that this July has been slow in terms of swell, and it might just make history! July 2020 could be the first July in recorded history that the Western Pacific did not see a named storm. On average, July sees four named storms. For this July to make history, the following cannot happen before August 1st:

1. The above-mentioned low pressure system intensifies into a named storm.

2. Hurricane Douglas crosses into the Northwest Pacific Basin as a tropical storm or typhoon. Douglas is currently just northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, about 2,000 kilometers from the eastern boundary of the Northwest Pacific Basin.

It is unlikely that either of those will occur before August 1st, however it is still a possibility. Weather models seem to agree that tropical activity in the Western Pacific will start to heat up next week. All we can say is that it's about time!

Taiwan Weekly Wave
07.21.2020 - 07.27.2020

That stubborn Pacific high pressure to Taiwan's east is persistent this season, with little to no change forecasted in the foreseeable future. There are a few low pressure systems to our north, but none that will bring us any impactful swell, unfortunately. Wave periods might improve slightly this week, but waves will remain on the small side (1 - 3 ft). This week will also remain HOT!

Most weather models indicate that tropical activity in the Western Pacific will remain abnormally quiet for the rest of July, with increased development not until early- to mid-August.

Of interest, 2020 has had the second fewest named tropical storms (2) during the period between January 1 to July 15. Four other years hold the same record: 1954, 1977, 1995, and 2010. The year that has had the most during that time period is 1971, with 15 named storms.

On the bright side, the second half of 2020 certainly must be better for us surfers!

Taiwan Weekly Wave
07.14.2020 - 07.20.2020

Well, finally some tropical activity in the Western Pacific, with a minor tropical depression southeast of Taiwan. Unfortunately it doesn't appear that it will provide an extended amount of swell, but there should be a bump of SSE swell for southern and eastern surf spots Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. We'll take what we can get!

Tropical Depression Carina (named by PAGASA) is currently southeast of Taiwan's southern tip and tracking northward towards Taiwan's eastern coast. As Carina interacts with the plum rain front and encounters wind shear, it will weaken as it moves northeastward towards Japan. Carina is not expected to intensify into a tropical storm, and should have degraded to a low pressure system as it nears Taiwan. Due to the storm's close proximity to Taiwan, southwesterly winds should also intensify on Tuesday and Wednesday.

This week is again affected by the Pacific high pressure to Taiwan's east. After Wednesday, once Tropical Depression Carina dissipates, we'll be back to small summer wave conditions. Get 'em while you can!

Taiwan Weekly Wave
07.07.2020 - 07.13.2020

High pressure will once again dominate the Western Pacific this week, with the development of a typhoon unlikely in the near future. This year's typhoon season has certainly started out slowly, with only one typhoon (Vongfong) since the start of the season in May.

However, tropical development is likely to increase in July. As the rainy season front begins to slowly move northward, away from Taiwan, the Western Pacific will become more susceptible to tropical activity and typhoons. Let's hope that happens sooner rather than later, as this week is looking very small in terms of waves.

Even without much swell this week, you may still want to get in the ocean and paddle around - this week is going to be hot...up to 36°C in many areas. Stay cool!


Swell Chart Source: meteoblue.com

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